Does Equality of Opportunity Study Suggest Community College Should Be Free?

An op-ed in today's Sacramento Bee uses the Equality of Opportunity study to argue that the state should make community college and the first two years of CSU tuition free.  I am not sure how the op-ed author derives his conclusion from the analysis in the Equality of Opportunity study.

I had skimmed the study a few weeks ago and did not come to these conclusions.  I thought it raised serious questions about California's higher ed structure with an enormous community college system and strong incentives for students to start in community college.  California has had the cheapest (nearly free tuition) community college education in the U.S. for decades and its educational outcomes are backsliding, especially for those under 40 who were educated in the state.  California still does a great job of attracting highly educated workers to move here from other places.

Prompted by this op-ed, I just gave the study another read to see if I was missing something.  I found no recommendation about free community college or expanding community college.  In fact the study notes that many community colleges don't rank that well on mobility, despite being high-access institutions because their success rates are so low.  It does have positive things to say about outcomes for students who start in the CSU system.  I could see it as an argument for expanding CSU's so more students can start in a 4-year environment, and I also can see it as an argument for continuing to provide financial aid opportunities that allow lower-income students to access private, non-profit institutions.

I edited some of the tables from the Equality of Opportunity study below.  There are many more community colleges than CSUs, UCs, and private, non-profits in California - so it seems they should dominate these tables.

The first table focuses on the mobility rate, which combines low-income access with success in mobilizing low-income students into the top-tier of earners.  The table shows the top 10 colleges in California (excluding very small institutions) for mobility and the bottom 10.  There is 1 community college in the top 10, but community colleges are 7 out of the bottom 10 for mobility.

The second table looks only at the success rate of low-income students attending a given university, irregardless of the share of students at that institution that are low-income.  Thus, Stanford can top this list despite only having 3.6% of students with low-income parents - since 63% of those students are successful in getting to the top income quintile by their early 30's.

When it comes to success rate, there were no community colleges in the list until 42nd place.  The very bottom of the success rate list are for-profit career colleges, but community colleges make up the rest, 15 of the bottom 20 places.

Community colleges are important, and I know many people who have had good educational experiences with them, and have successfully used them to achieve their educational goals.  The policy question here is at the margin.  Should California be putting more resources and directing more students in their direction, or would there be a better return on investment in expanding the CSU system and low-income access to private non-profits with high success rates?

Mobility Rate Rankings

Institution Name	Median Parent Hhold. Income ($)	Median Child Indiv. Earnings Ages 32-34 ($)	Low-Income Access: % of Parents in Bottom Quintile	Success Rate: % of Children in Top Quintile Among Those with Parents in Bottom Quintile	Mobility Rate: % of Children who Come From Bottom Quintile and Reach Top Quintile
Top 10 Mobility Rate(>= 300 students per cohort)
California State University, Los Angeles	36,600	43,000	33.1	29.9	9.9
Glendale Community College	40,100	30,500	32.4	21.9	7.1
California State Polytechnic University, Pomona	80,200	55,100	14.9	45.8	6.8
University Of California, Irvine	92,100	60,400	12.2	55.3	6.8
California State University, Northridge	61,100	44,100	19.8	32.0	6.3
University Of California, Riverside	75,000	52,800	14.7	41.0	6.0
California State University, Dominguez Hills	45,600	40,300	26.3	21.3	5.6
University Of California, Los Angeles	105,500	65,800	10.2	54.6	5.6
San Jose State University	91,700	56,500	11.7	46.6	5.4
University Of California, Berkeley	114,700	67,900	8.8	55.2	4.9
Bottom 10 Mobility Rate (>= 300 students per cohort)
College Of The Redwoods	59,900	20,300	18.8	7.5	1.4
Point Loma Nazarene University	113,300	45,900	3.3	42.7	1.4
Lake Tahoe Community College	64,600	22,100	14.2	9.8	1.4
Mendocino College	51,900	21,400	21.0	6.0	1.3
Sierra College	85,900	30,900	7.8	15.7	1.2
California Lutheran University	110,600	50,900	3.2	38.2	1.2
Saddleback College	100,600	31,100	7.0	16.5	1.2
Solano Community College	84,300	34,300	7.9	13.7	1.1
Las Positas College	109,500	37,300	4.9	16.5	0.8
Marinello School Of Beauty, Xenon International Academy, International School Of Skin And Nailcare And Hair Professionals Academy	44,200	11,400	25.4	2.9	0.7

Success Rate Rankings

Institution Name	Median Parent Hhold. Income ($)	Median Child Indiv. Earnings Ages 32-34 ($)	Low-Income Access: % of Parents in Bottom Quintile	Success Rate: % of Children in Top Quintile Among Those with Parents in Bottom Quintile	Mobility Rate: % of Children who Come From Bottom Quintile and Reach Top Quintile
Top 42 Success Rate (schools >=300 students per cohort)
Stanford University	172,600	84,800	3.6	62.7	2.2
Santa Clara University	149,900	72,500	3.6	62.0	2.2
University Of California, Irvine	92,100	60,400	12.2	55.3	6.8
University Of California, Berkeley	114,700	67,900	8.8	55.2	4.9
University Of California, San Diego	111,300	65,300	8.8	55.1	4.8
University Of California, Los Angeles	105,500	65,800	10.2	54.6	5.6
University Of Southern California	120,100	63,700	7.2	54.6	3.9
California Polytechnic State University	124,800	65,500	4.2	53.6	2.2
Pomona College	161,600	62,000	3.7	53.0	2.0
University Of California, Davis	109,400	61,600	8.6	51.8	4.4
University Of The Pacific	96,500	59,000	8.6	49.7	4.3
University Of California, Santa Barbara	124,000	58,800	6.2	49.5	3.1
Scripps College	126,300	46,400	5.1	49.1	2.5
University Of San Diego	139,300	61,200	4.9	46.8	2.3
San Jose State University	91,700	56,500	11.7	46.6	5.4
University Of San Francisco	106,900	56,900	5.9	46.2	2.7
Loyola Marymount University	131,800	56,200	5.4	45.9	2.5
California State Polytechnic University, Pomona	80,200	55,100	14.9	45.8	6.8
California State University, East Bay	86,000	51,300	9.9	44.0	4.3
Saint Mary's College Of California	110,500	55,200	6.7	43.7	2.9
Pepperdine University	124,100	55,800	4.3	43.1	1.9
Point Loma Nazarene University	113,300	45,900	3.3	42.7	1.4
University Of California, Riverside	75,000	52,800	14.7	41.0	6.0
San Diego State University	100,500	51,000	9.0	40.8	3.7
California State University, Fullerton	83,300	47,800	12.1	39.6	4.8
Occidental College	122,400	49,000	8.5	39.1	3.3
California Lutheran University	110,600	50,900	3.2	38.2	1.2
California State University, Long Beach	85,800	48,800	11.6	38.2	4.4
University Of California, Santa Cruz	115,400	46,100	7.4	37.6	2.8
San Francisco State University	87,200	45,800	10.1	34.7	3.5
Sonoma State University	113,700	46,400	5.0	34.4	1.7
California State University, Bakersfield	67,700	46,100	14.1	32.8	4.6
University Of Redlands	108,400	47,700	5.3	32.3	1.7
California State University, Monterey Bay	93,200	41,100	10.5	32.3	3.4
California State University, Chico	112,200	48,700	6.1	32.2	2.0
California State University, Northridge	61,100	44,100	19.8	32.0	6.3
California State University - Sacramento	88,700	47,900	10.5	31.9	3.3
Chapman University	109,600	47,900	5.3	31.9	1.7
California State University, San Bernardino	69,800	43,500	14.1	31.2	4.4
Azusa Pacific University	103,700	42,100	4.9	30.9	1.5
California State University, Los Angeles	36,600	43,000	33.1	29.9	9.9
Ohlone College	91,100	38,500	7.1	29.0	2.1
Bottom 20 Success Rate (schools >= 300 students per cohort)
Victor Valley Community College	62,600	25,200	17.7	12.1	2.1
Chaffey Community College	66,300	27,700	14.7	12.0	1.8
Southwestern Community College District	54,200	28,200	20.2	11.8	2.4
Antelope Valley College	66,600	25,700	16.4	11.8	1.9
West Hills Community College District	46,100	25,600	22.5	11.7	2.6
College Of The Sequoias	51,500	27,500	21.8	11.6	2.5
Yuba Community College District	48,700	25,400	20.4	11.5	2.4
Miracosta College	71,200	26,500	13.4	11.5	1.5
College Of The Siskiyous	57,500	27,900	19.0	10.5	2.0
Lake Tahoe Community College	64,600	22,100	14.2	9.8	1.4
Merced Community College	48,400	25,400	24.0	9.5	2.3
State Center Community College District	47,600	25,200	24.7	9.4	2.3
San Joaquin Valley College	36,000	21,500	34.8	7.9	2.8
College Of The Redwoods	59,900	20,300	18.8	7.5	1.4
Carrington College California	47,900	25,000	24.5	7.0	1.7
Westwood College - Los Angeles	37,800	26,400	26.9	6.7	1.8
Mendocino College	51,900	21,400	21.0	6.0	1.3
United Education Institute	29,600	19,100	42.4	5.3	2.2
American Career College of Los Angeles, CA	30,400	25,700	41.5	4.8	2.0
Marinello School Of Beauty, Xenon International Academy, International School Of Skin And Nailcare And Hair Professionals Academy	44,200	11,400	25.4	2.9	0.7

Another view of the Northern California Mega-region

Another recent study has analyzed mega-regions in the U.S.  This one is from Dartmouth with some cool graphics.  It imagines what U.S. states would look like if they were defined by economic relationships, and like most studies of its kind, it sees the Northern California mega-region (Bay Area, Sacramento, North San Joaquin Valley, Monterey Bay) as a distinct state.

This image of commuter flows from the Dartmouth study shows the distinct break between the North San Joaquin Valley and Fresno, there is almost no economic linkage at all.  Even though every objective outside look at the economy doesn't place Stockton/Modesto and Fresno/Bakersfield in the same "state," important economic development and planning organizations at the state level (like this and this) continue to lump them together and exclude the North San Joaquin Valley from its true economic region. 

It's up to the North San Joaquin Valley communities to redefine themselves and organize themselves in ways to more effectively engage as a cohesive region with growing linkages to the Bay Area and Sacramento. 

Here is another view from the study.  The data is 2006-10 flows, so the linkages have only grown. 

Economic Forecast: Slowdown Not a Downturn

Headline on the front page of today's Stockton Record could cause some confusion and concern.

The forecast is for a slowdown in growth with higher uncertainty, which yes does mean higher recession risk in future years.  Preliminary data suggests slower growth has already arrived in Stockton.  Our forecast for jobs in the area is pictured below.  Not a downturn, but it is a downgrade compared to our previous forecast and a definite slowdown from rapid growth of recent years.

We have also reduced our forecast of housing starts which has been too optimistic in recent years.  It's still solid growth from current levels, but maxes out at about half of 2002-05 housing production.

The full forecast is available here, http://www.pacific.edu/Academics/Schools-and-Colleges/Eberhardt-School-of-Business/Centers-and-Institutes/Center-for-Business-and-Policy-Research/California-and-Metro-Forecast.html