I think Mike Locke has the employment impacts of the NUMMI plant closure on San Joaquin County about right in this Stockton Record article. We built in an additional 1% increase (3,000 more unemployed) in the County unemployment rate by Spring 2010 into our September forecast and will do the same in our December update. Locke's estimates are roughly the same.
Although NUMMI plant is in the East Bay, it has a proportionally larger impact on the Northern San Joaquin Valley than the Bay Area. The recession does not end in the northern San Joaquin Valley until NUMMI closes in March 2010.
Michael Locke, president and chief executive of the San Joaquin Partnership, said up to 3,200 county residents - about 1 percent of the civilian work force - could lose their jobs with NUMMI's closure.
"We have 1,200 employees employed in nine manufacturing plants here in San Joaquin who are component manufacturers," he said Wednesday. "At this stage, we believe all of them will close with the closure of NUMMI.
Also, there are more than 800 direct NUMMI employees living in the county, including an estimated 300 in Tracy, 200 in Stockton and 200 in Manteca.
Finally, Locke said there are another 1,200 area residents employed by other vendors and service providers, which as Valley Mountain Express, a Manteca trucking company that moves auto parts from various NUMMI suppliers to the Fremont assembly plant.
"As that business is eliminated, they're significantly impacted," he said.