Wednesday, March 29, 2017

Bay Area Net Domestic Migration Shows Large Drop in 2016, While Stockton and Sacramento Have Relatively Small Gains

Census released metro area population growth data for 2016 a few days ago, and it shows a large increase in out-migration from the Bay Area, but little change in domestic migration for inland parts of the mega-region.  Specifically, Bay Area net domestic migration declined by over 30,000 people in 2016, as shown in the table below.

Net Domestic Migration in Thousands (July 1 previous year to June 30)
2016 2015 2014 2013
San Jose -20.8 -10.1 -7.2 -1.4
San Francisco -12 0.1 -0.3 2.4
Oakland -1.1 8.8 14.1 13
Sacramento 12.3 9.1 8.2 3.3
Stockton 4.2 3.7 3.8 -3.9

Unfortunately, we don't have any data yet for 2016 on how the net domestic migration change breaks down between in-migration versus out-migration.

My guess is that more of the 2016 change for the Bay Area results from a slow-down to in-migration due to slower job growth and high cost of living.  If the net change were mostly due to an increase in out-migration, then I expect we would have seen a larger increase to net migration for Stockton and Sacramento.  Between 2013 and 2015, we saw a smaller decrease in Bay Area domestic migration and a larger increase to Stockton/Sacramento domestic migration.