With the weekend, I forgot to post that we released our July 2011 California and Metro Forecast last Friday. It was interpreted as gloomy, which it is, but it is actually moderately optimistic compared to some of the other forecasts for the Central Valley, particularly Sacramento, and the deepening pessimism about the national economy. Click here to see the summary.
I remember last fall being amazed that the 10-year U.S. treasury bond was yielding a mere 2.5% during a supposed recovery, and what that said about the general lack of confidence in the recovery. That didn't last long, and the yield has been a still low 3-3.5% for most of the year. Today, it closed at 2.4%. I'm not ready to predict another recession, but it is a safe bet that the October 2011 forecast will be lower.