Friday, March 13, 2015

Which California Metro Areas Are Still Below Pre-Recession Employment Levels?

The latest revised payroll data shows big differences across the State's regions.  The tables below show the percentage change in payrolls (seasonally adjusted) since June 2007.

Among the 10 largest metro areas in California, Sacramento is the furthest behind and soon will be the only large metro area still below pre-recession levels.  The good news is that Sacramento is recovering nicely now, but the recovery started about two years late in this region.  However, the biggest outlier is on the positive side not negative.  Silicon Valley and San Francisco is in a league of its own.                                                                                                

Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine Metro Div

Bakersfield MSA

Fresno MSA

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale Metro Div

Oakland-Hayward-Berkeley Metro Div

Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario MSA

Sacramento-Roseville-Arden Arcade MSA

San Diego-Carlsbad MSA

San Francisco-Redwood City-South San Francisco Metro Div

San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara MSA


Focusing just on the Central Valley, there is a geographical pattern from north to south. The worst recovering areas are in the Sacramento Valley, while the strongest growth has been in the drought-stricken areas of the south Valley.  Stockton and Sacramento metro areas are virtually tied, and both should finally cross this job recovery threshold this summer.  While it has been a painfully slow process, it is actually two years sooner than we were predicting back in 2011.

Yuba City -4.72%
Redding -4.39%
Sacramento -1.45%
Stockton -1.44%
Modesto 0.06%
Chico 0.39%
Visalia 1.48%
Fresno 1.77%
Madera 3.65%
Merced 5.10%
Bakersfield 7.90%
Hanford 9.77%

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