Wednesday, February 1, 2017

Economic Forecast: Slowdown Not a Downturn

Headline on the front page of today's Stockton Record could cause some confusion and concern.

The forecast is for a slowdown in growth with higher uncertainty, which yes does mean higher recession risk in future years.  Preliminary data suggests slower growth has already arrived in Stockton.  Our forecast for jobs in the area is pictured below.  Not a downturn, but it is a downgrade compared to our previous forecast and a definite slowdown from rapid growth of recent years.

We have also reduced our forecast of housing starts which has been too optimistic in recent years.  It's still solid growth from current levels, but maxes out at about half of 2002-05 housing production.

The full forecast is available here,

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