Like most forecasters, we have been busy marking down our outlook. It's not pretty, especially in the Central Valley. Summary pasted below. Summary tables, more highlights and subscription information at this link.
CALIFORNIA AND METRO FORECAST: October 2010
California Double Digit Unemployment Will Last Through 2013
Sacramento has the weakest 2011 outlook.
(Stockton, Calif.) October 21, 2010 – The faltering recovery will keep California’s unemployment rate above 10% for three more years according to the Business Forecasting Center at the University of the Pacific. This quarterly forecast is a significant downward revision in the 2011 and 2012 outlook, and reflects a slowing national economy.
In the Central Valley, which is disproportionately impacted by continued weakness in construction and state budget cuts, unemployment rates are projected to plateau at their current high levels for nearly two years. Homebuilding remains at record lows in the Valley, and cuts to schools and local governments are offsetting any gains from improved conditions in agriculture.
Sacramento has the weakest outlook for the next 12 months, with no job growth projected between 2010 and 2011. Sacramento unemployment will exceed the state average for 2011, the first time this has occurred in over two decades of consistent data. By 2013, Sacramento and Stockton will be leading a strong recovery in the Central Valley, but the next two years will be extremely challenging for the region.
San Jose continues to be the only area in Northern California that is clearly recovering. We project 3% job growth for San Jose in 2011 and 2012, and this strength will eventually spill over to its lagging neighbors. Unemployment in all the Bay Area metros should drop below 10% by the end of 2011.