Realtors' Economic Forecast

One expects, and typically receives, an optimistic assessment of the economy from the California Association of Realtors. Today's news release accompanying the new CAR housing market forecast contained the most optimistic statement I have seen about the California economy in a long time. According to CAR chief economist Leslie Appleton-Young,

We expect a net jobs increase of approximately 1.4 million jobs in California for the year to come ...

That has to be a misquote. A net gain of 1.4 million jobs would be roughly 10% growth. Surely, she means 140,000, we will see when the details are presented later this week.

More importantly, they are predicting a 2% gain in the median home price from 2010 to 2011 which is pretty modest for CAR and suggests the jobs quote is indeed a mistake. I expect median prices to be flat with some continued declines at the high end of the market that will not affect the median.