Thursday, April 26, 2018

Stockton Has Both the Longest and Shortest Commutes in the U.S.

The Stockton-Lodi area has a very interesting economy - there are many extremes and averages can be deceptive.  This is well illustrated by Stockton appearing at the top of the list in two recent studies: one that measured the share of the population that are super-commuters, and the other measured shortest commutes.  In other words, if you are a worker in the Stockton-Lodi area, your commute is likely to be either extremely short or extremely long.

Here are the stories/studies:

First, from this weeks San Jose Mercury News,
https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/04/25/nightmare-90-minute-super-commutes-more-common-housing-shortage-intensifies/
SJM-L COMMUTE-0425-90-01

Second, this slightly older Marketwatch story describing a Brooking Institution report that looked at commute length for people who live and work in the same metro area.
The longest commute is in sprawling Atlanta, followed closely behind by Dallas and Houston. The shortest commute is in the Stockton-Lodi, Calif., metro area.  
Metro Typical commute in miles
Stockton, CA 4.7
New Haven, CT 5
Scranton, PA 5.2
Oxnard, CA 5.3
Bridgeport, CT 5.4
Provo, UT 5.5
Bakersfield, CA 5.6
Fresno, CA 5.6
Spokane, WA 5.6
Ogden, UT 5.7

The top 10 are listed above, notice that other Central Valley Metros are here too.  And here is the link to the original Brookings study
https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Srvy_JobsProximity.pdf

This is a good example of how averages can be deceiving.  It is easy to see how a company or location consultant screening areas might use average commute time data and think that traffic and commuting is a terrible strike against it.  However, a closer look reveals that employee commutes are actually very short in Stockton for employers if they are a good fit for the regional workforce.

The relatively short local commutes of Central Valley metros in this ranking of local job proximity is interesting too.  With the exception of Sacramento, the large cities in the Central Valley (Stockton, Fresno, Bakersfield) are not characterized by sprawling suburbs full of workers commuting to an urban core of office jobs.  While these cities certainly have plenty of suburban, sprawl type housing in the city limits, often the city boundaries end abruptly into farmland rather than another suburb, followed by another suburb.      

Monday, April 9, 2018

Will the Metropolitan Water District Board Give Their Staff a Blank Check for WaterFix? Comparing language in MWD resolutions from October 2017 and April 2018

Last fall, when the Metropolitan Water District board voted to approve their share of WaterFix, the authorization of the General Manager was strictly limited to $4.3 billion (calculated as 26% of total estimated cost, but the limit was on the amount).

Tomorrow, the resolution before Board members does not limit the amount, but approves the General Manager to pay 64.6% of total project costs and grants the General Manager discretion in how the percentage is calculated.  While the staff report estimates this amount as "up to $10.8 billion," the actual resolution varies substantially from previous resolutions in that it does not include a specific dollar amount or any language to limit the total amount.  

This seems like a very substantial change to language that increases the financial obligation and risk to Metropolitan's ratepayers by much more than the difference between $10.8 billion and $4.3 billion.  I have pasted the relevant resolution language below.  Read it for yourself.

October 10, 2017 resolution: 

"2. Authorization of General Manager. The Board hereby authorizes the General Manager of the District, and any of the designees of the General Manager of the District, to do any and all things necessary or convenient in the best interests of the District to effect any financing of the California WaterFix through the Financing JPA (referred to herein as a “District Participation Action”) consistent with the CWF Project Arrangements, and to enter into any and all agreements and documents that the General Manager or his designee determines, in his or her sole discretion, to be necessary or convenient in the best interests of the District to carry out any District Participation Action, and to execute all papers, documents, certificates, agreements or other instruments that may be required in order to carry out any District Participation Action or to evidence said authority and its exercise; provided, however, that the District shall not make financial commitments to the California WaterFix in excess of $4.3 billion in 2017 dollars, which amounts to 25.9% of the estimated $16.7 billion in total capital costs of the California WaterFix. The term of bonds issued for the project shall not exceed 40 years and the total interest cost on debt issued will not exceed 8%. In implementing these actions, the General Manager of the District shall be authorized to use such reasonable assumptions, methods, approaches and calculations that it believes, in good faith, to be consistent with the authorizations herein and necessary to the implementation of the matters provided for in this Resolution." 

April 10, 2018 resolution:

"2. Authorization of General Manager. The Board hereby authorizes the General Manager of the District, and any of the designees of the General Manager of the District, to do any and all things necessary or convenient in the best interests of the District to effect any Unsubscribed Capacity Arrangements, and to negotiate, execute and deliver any and all agreements and documents that the General Manager or his designee determines, in his or her sole discretion, to be necessary or convenient in the best interests of the District to carry out any Unsubscribed Capacity Arrangement, and to execute all papers, documents, certificates, agreements or other instruments that may be required in order to carry out any Unsubscribed Capacity Arrangement or to evidence said authority and its exercise. 

3. Limitation of Authorization. The District shall not enter into any Unsubscribed Capacity Arrangement under Section 1 or 2 of this Resolution if, after giving effect to such Unsubscribed Capacity Arrangement, the District’s funding of such Unsubscribed Capacity Arrangement, together with the District’s estimated costs in its capacity as a State Water Project contractor, would commit the District to pay for more than 64.6% of the estimated costs of California WaterFix; provided, however, that the General Manager shall calculate the total amount of estimated costs of California WaterFix and the District's responsibility to pay for costs of California WaterFix based on such reasonable assumptions and methods as the General Manager shall determine in his or her reasonable discretion and judgment." 

Highlight and Bold added 4/10.
Links to original documents:
For October 10, 2017

For April 10, 2018