Monday, December 1, 2008

Revising the bet

So far, I have had no takers from the PPIC team on my offer of a $10,000 bet.

Maybe, I'll have better luck if I bet on water recycling costs instead of desalination. The PPIC report assumes reclaimed (recycled) water in 2050 will cost $1480 acre foot (in 2008$).

Like desalination, I offer to bet them $10,000 that water recycling costs will reach 1/2 their assumed value ($740), before California's population reaches 46 million.

I guess I shouldn't expect them to accept it, since I would immediately win. A new Orange County facility has been recycling wastewater into drinking water for $550 per acre foot for the past year.

Maybe the PPIC peripheral canal team will take it if it is 1/3 their assumed costs. Perhaps I should offer to give my winnings back to them if they fix their study and reestimate the models under better assumptions.

[The point is that this inflated cost assumption also inflates the PPIC's estimated cost of eliminating Delta exports by several hundred million dollars. It isn't included in my earlier review, but will be part of the update coming in a few weeks.]

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