Friday, March 6, 2009

Stockton Record Editorial

It's nice to get noticed in the paper, and this editorial in the Stockton Record almost gets it right.

Although household growth would suggest a need for over 5,000 units per year, the market will not supply them at current prices, and will not until a tight housing market and better and credit and labor markets push prices back up. That will take a few years. Confused? See the Powerpoints from our housing workshop, including those from the other speakers.

My forecast was compared to Leslie Appleton-Young with the California Association of Realtors, but I am not as optimistic as she is about the market. When, I told the reporter that "we've gone further through the cycle than other regions" I was referring to real estate prices, not foreclosures.

I disagree with Appleton-Young that declining subprime resets mean that foreclosures will be decreasing. That may be true in markets that have seen smaller price declines, but around here so many homeowners are underwater that foreclosures probably have further to increase on prime, alt-a, and other loans - and few will be eligible for refinancing under the Obama Plan.

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