New Forecast Is Out

Our April economic outlook was just published (yes, I know it is May 1).

CALIFORNIA AND METRO FORECAST:  April 2012

California remains on the path of slow recovery according to the latest projection from the Business Forecasting Center at the University of the Pacific.  For 2012 and 2013, real gross state product is forecast to grow at an average 2.5% rate for both 2012 and 2013, and jobs will increase at a 1.5% pace.  In 2014 and beyond, the pace of recovery will gradually accelerate as housing and construction begin making a positive contribution to the economy.

California’s unemployment rate is currently 11.0%, and is projected to remain in double digits through the last quarter of 2013.  Housing starts are projected to grow modestly to 54,000 in 2012 with most growth in coastal multi-family construction while single-family homebuilding remains near historic lows.

The regional outlook predicts that 2012 is the first year of economic recovery in the hard hit Central Valley.  More details here